I can't guarantee this will be my last political post of this election cycle but it will be the last I speak of the Presidential election until at least Thursday the 6th.
I am amused that the CNN Poll of Polls has Iowa listed as dark blue aka sure to go for Obama.
The "poll of polls" is an aggregate with no original polling. The finally showed all nine of those polls this morning on AM. The actual polls vary from a 2 point to a 13 point lead for Obama. As someone who has seen the hard facts of the Iowa polling numbers, they are dead wrong on Iowa. They should have kept the state listed as yellow aka too close to call/neutral/toss-up.
Iowa has 99 counties. About 19 of them in two clusters: one centered around the capitol/biggest city Des Moines in central Polk county n' up through to Cedar Falls and Waterloo and the other around the third biggest city Davenport in Scott County on the eastern border of Iowa/the Mississippi River (which is shared with Wisconsin and Illinois and their tv markets) and up through Clinton county [hehe] are polling Democrat.
The capitol is easily explained as the the governor and the State Congress are currently 'controlled' by Democrats. Obama also started his caucus push in the Des Moines area in 2007. The other area has been heavily saturated in media and appearances by Obama. Naturally results in both areas are going to be 'blue'.
However, that is the ONLY polling being done in Iowa. And those subtraction skills I learned back in first grade reveal that 99-19=80. Using roll-up 'new' math, roughly 80% of the state is 'red' (and this is backed by voting trends and available early voting results).
Iowa's electoral votes went for Bush in 2004 and there was only a 5000 vote differential in 2000. As there are 99 counties with 99 different ways of voting and counting returns, the then-Secretary of State (who is the current governor) decided not to do a recount. It would have made Florida look competent in their efforts.
Iowa is a hard state. If the governor and state house is Democratic, it Electoral College votes go Republican and vice-versa. As the polls (by both sides) are concentrating in heavy 'blue' areas and the governor and state congress are 'blue', I predict Iowa will go 'red'
. It will be no surprise to those who see Iowa as more than four areas.
And as someone who grew up in the fourth-largest city, Sioux City, which is still 'red' but not currently nationally polled despite repeat visits by McCain, Obama and Palin--though not Biden, I can predict there is somewhat of a "Bradley effect". People who have said they were voting for Obama because they didn't want to be hassled about their choice of McCain. Notably minorities who were publicly asked their preference have discussed the pressure put upon them after declaring any non-Democrat or non-liberal choice.
Here is a major newsflash: PEOPLE LIE TO POLLSTERS
. I personally know of 15 people who were abusively contacted by pollsters who flat-out lied to them. And that is not just in Iowa. Many polls are dependent on deliberately misleading information from people who have no intention of revealing their vote and/or leanings.
Its not Obama's race, its not McCain's age or any of the other factors the pundits who take their talking points off the results that will determine the winner of the Presidential election this year. There are only two 'answers' which factor[ed] in nearly every voting choice: 1) Can I trust this guy; and 2) Will this guy do what is best for us, especially me and mine?
Even before the Reverend Wright, Bill Ayers and family issues, most people (in my small unofficial survey) who actually met Obama liked him. But they didn't and don't trust him. He comes off too slick, he's unproven (aside from allowing a divorce to be opened in order to destroy his US Senate seat opponent), and the money behind him is "suspicious". They don't believe he will help them but will aim to get more money for his cronies so they can "spread the wealth around". A significant number also believe him to not be a legal US citizen*
Of those who met McCain, they believed him to honest, frustrated, a try-er (as opposed to 'talker' Obama) and likely to fight for the little guy against a hostile Congress. They cite that "He's proven he can work both sides of the aisle", "has actually written his own bills" (some of which were passed), and "genuinely seems changed by his POW experience" from a silver-spooner to a worker. They believe he would fight to lower taxes in order to stimulate US-based business so more people can work and earn their own instead of demanding the broke government help them. And this was before the socialist 'charges' on Obama.I believe Iowa's popular vote will be close but its electoral votes will go for McCain. I believe the national trend will be a more divided popular vote resulting in a close Electoral College vote on December 15th
and at least one objection on January 8th
(though I'm curious why the Electoral vote is tallied so much later). I do think McCain will be the next President of the United States.
But he will have a much harder battle both domestically and internationally than Obama would. However, I think he will 'heal' things with a second stimulus package, a revitalized new National Work Program and improved relations with some hostile nuclear-capable foreign countries. I can only hope for such a result as I fear that a President Obama would be assassinated and Joe Biden would be a much more disastrous promotion than Sarah Palin.What I deeply desire is that the next POTUS actually live up to their promises of affordable health care, better economic opportunities and US-based renewable energy grounded in sound ecological policy. The USA is going to need all three in order to pull itself back up.
I want to believe. I hope for the best. Change will happen.
And if you chose not to vote, I chose to not listen/read/view your opinion.
You don't chose, you do lose!